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TMCNet:  Future of Communication 2020 - Telco & OTT communication - Market forecasts

[January 16, 2013]

Future of Communication 2020 - Telco & OTT communication - Market forecasts

NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue: Future of Communication 2020 - Telco & OTT communication - Market forecasts http://www.reportlinker.com/p01083638/Future-of-Communication-2020---Telco--OTT-communication---Market-forecasts.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=NoCategory Communication being ubiquitious and IP-based solutions taking increasingly a bigger part in it, this market still remains essential despite decreasing revenues.


This report provides analyses on quantitative changes until 2020, in terms of usages and revenues. It also describes the latest trends, the re-positioning of telcos in an OTT world.

Key Questions - What will be the key trends in communication by 2020 Will the total revenue pie of communication shrink or grow How are telco margins evolving for communication Simple substitution from fixed to mobile or revenue loss In terms of usages, how will communication services evolve until 2020 What about OTT VoIP & SMS What are the impacts of new technologies such as WebRTC or RCSe Can telcos recover their territory from OTT players Moreover, how much territory are they really losing, if any Contents 1. Executive Summary . 7 1.1. The six key trends shaping the market 81.2. Key developments in usage of communication services 91.3. The quantification of the communication market . 10 2. Methodology 12 3. Communication 2020 in figures 14 3.1. Key usage developments by 2020 14 3.1.1. Mobile users still much more dominant than OTT VoIP users 14 3.1.2. Messaging users of both telcos and OTTs expected to grow 15 3.1.3. Number of SMS sent still set to grow, but OTT messages are rapidly catching up16 3.2. The quantification of communication revenue by 2020 . 18 3.2.1. Overall communication services market expected to see very slight decline over eight years from 2012 to 2020 18 3.2.2. Increase in mobile communication revenues cannot compensate for the decline in fixed communication revenues . 20 3.2.3. Increase in telco messaging revenues cannot compensate for the decline in telco voice revenues . 24 3.2.4. OTT communication revenues cannot compensate for decline in telco communication revenues . 28 4. The six key trends in communication . 32 4.1. The aggregation of communication types 32 4.1.1. Introduction . 32 4.1.2. Facebook . 32 4.1.3. Google 34 4.1.4. WhatsApp 35 4.1.5. Apple . 35 4.1.6. Operators . 36 4.2. Beyond traditional communication for telcos 37 4.2.1. Introduction . 37 4.2.2. Operators providing their own OTT service 37 4.2.3. Partnerships between OTT and operators 39 4.2.4. joyn (RCSe) 40 4.3. Voice and messaging becoming a telco commodity 43 4.3.1. Introduction . 43 4.3.2. Mobile voice and messaging offered in abundance 43 4.3.3. Fixed voice and Internet access also unlimited 44 4.3.4. Bundling it all for an even cheaper experience . 45 4.4. Mobile data and WiFi makes strong case for OTTs 46 4.4.1. Introduction . 46 4.4.2. Unlimited mobile data still rare 46 4.4.3. WiFi over mobile allows unlimited OTT communication including video 47 4.5. The rise of video communication . 48 4.5.1. Introduction . 48 4.5.2. Telco video communications . 48 4.5.3. OTT video communications 48 4.6. Genuinely free OTT offers in exchange of user data . 52 4.6.1. Introduction . 52 4.6.2. Free or low-cost OTT services 52 4.6.3. Advertising and data usage 53 Tables Table 1: Communication providers aggregating communication types . 8 Table 2: Communication providers aggregating communication types 32 Figures Figure 1: Fixed telephony lines, mobile subscriptions and OTT VoIP users forecast, USA, 2012- 2020 . 9 Figure 2: Number of messages sent forecast by type, EU5, 2012-2020 . 10 Figure 3: Total communication revenue forecast by market segment, EU5 2012-2020 10 Figure 4: Telco revenue forecast by market segment, EU5, 2012-2020 . 11 Figure 5: Fixed telephony lines, mobile subscriptions and OTT VoIP users forecast, USA, 2012- 2020 14 Figure 6: Fixed telephony lines, mobile subscriptions and OTT VoIP users forecast, EU5, 2012- 2020 15 Figure 7: Messaging users forecast by type of message, USA, 2012-2020 15 Figure 8: Messaging users forecast by type of message, EU5, 2012-2020 16 Figure 9: Number of messages sent forecast by type, USA, 2012-2020 16 Figure 10: Share of messages sent, USA, 2012 and 2020 17 Figure 11: Number of messages sent forecast by type, EU5, 2012-2020 . 17 Figure 12: Share of messages sent, EU5, 2012 and 2020 18 Figure 13: Total communication revenue forecast by market segment, USA, 2012-2020 19 Figure 14: Total communication revenue share by market segment, USA, 2012 and 2020 19 Figure 15: Total communication revenue forecast by market segment, EU5, 2012-2020 . 20 Figure 16: Total communication revenue share by market segment, EU5, 2012 and 2020 . 20 Figure 17: Telco fixed and mobile communication revenue forecast, USA, 2012-2020 . 21 Figure 18: Total fixed telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), USA, 2012- 2020 21 Figure 19: Total mobile telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), USA, 2012-2020 22 Figure 20: Total telco revenues forecast (fixed and mobile, communication and noncommunication), USA, 2012-2020 . 22 Figure 21: Telco fixed and mobile communication revenue forecast, EU5, 2012-2020 . 23 Figure 22: Total fixed telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), EU5, 2012- 2020 23 Figure 23: Total mobile telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), EU5, 2012-2020 24 Figure 24: Total telco revenues forecast (fixed and mobile, communication and noncommunication), EU5, 2012-2020 . 24 Figure 25: Telco fixed voice, mobile voice and messaging revenues forecast, USA, 2012-2020 . 25 Figure 26: Share of messaging revenue, USA, 2012 and 2020 . 25 Figure 27: SMS and other messaging services revenues forecast, USA, 2012-2020 . 26 Figure 28: Share of SMS and other messaging services revenues, USA, 2012 and 2020 26 Figure 29: Telco fixed voice, mobile voice and mobile messaging revenue forecast, EU5, 2012- 2020 27 Figure 30: Share of messaging revenue, EU5, 2012 and 2020 . 27 Figure 31: SMS and other messaging services revenues forecast, EU5, 2012-2020 . 28 Figure 32: Share of SMS and other messaging services revenues, EU5, 2012 and 2020 28 Figure 33: OTT communication revenue forecast by segment, USA, 2012-2020 . 29 Figure 34: Share of OTT communication revenue by segment, USA, 2012 and 2020 29 Figure 35: Comparison of telco and OTT communication revenues, USA, 2012-2020 30 Figure 36: OTT communication revenue forecast by segment, EU5, 2012-2020 . 30 Figure 37: Share of OTT communication revenue by segment, EU5, 2012 and 2020 31 Figure 38: Comparison of telco and OTT communication revenues, EU5, 2012-2020 31 Figure 39: The new look of Facebook messages . 33 Figure 40: Bobsled, by T-Mobile, allows voice calls on Facebook chat . 33 Figure 41: Video-calling option within Facebook 34 Figure 42: FaceTime from Apple 36 Figure 43: Media Centre Cloud service by Deutsche Telekom 36 Figure 44: The TU Me app by Telefonica 37 Figure 45: Key features of the Bobsled app by T-Mobile USA 38 Figure 46: International Favourites, by O2 UK 38 Figure 47: The Skype-on-Three offer which incurs no data charges 39 Figure 48: Skype on KDDI 39 Figure 49: WhatsApp offering from Three Hong Kong 40 Figure 50: The 'joyn' service, led by the GSMA . 41 Figure 51: OEM ecosystem for joyn . 42 Figure 52: Orange France mobile plans offer unlimited calls and SMS in their cheapest plans . 44 Figure 53: BT offers unlimited calls (national) and Internet 44 Figure 54: Quadruple bundle from Orange, further commoditising voice and messaging . 45 Figure 55: Penetration of bundled services in European households . 46 Figure 56: A comparison of Sprint, AT&T and Verizon's smartphone data plan, by Sprint 47 Figure 57: Video call tariffs 48 Figure 58: A FaceTime video communication between an iPhone user and an iPad user 49 Figure 59: A Skype video communication using the Skype application . 49 Figure 60: An example of WebRTC integration for video calls on Google Chrome . 50 Figure 61: A GTalk video chat (using the Flash plug-in) 51 Figure 62: A Windows Live Messenger window with an ad at the bottom 52 Figure 63: Falcon Pro for Twitter sold inn the Google Play app store at 0.79 EUR 53 Figure 64: WhatsApp Messenger price information before downloading the app . 53 Figure 65: Facebook targeted advertising on the user's wall . 54 To order this report:: Future of Communication 2020 - Telco & OTT communication - Market forecasts Nicolas BombourgReportlinkerEmail: nicolasbombourg@reportlinker.comUS: (805) 652-2626Intl: +1 805-652-2626 SOURCE Reportlinker

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